SWAMI DIVYAGYAN
Ranchi, Nov 22: The 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections, covering all 81 constituencies, have created a politically charged and uncertain environment. This time, the contest between the NDA (BJP, AJSU, JD(U)) and the INDIA alliance (JMM, Congress, RJD, and Left parties) is both direct and intense. In some seats like Vishrampur, Dhanwar, and Chhatarpur, the INDIA alliance witnessed friendly fights where coalition partners fielded separate candidates.
Experts highlight the BJP’s decision to field 26 new faces to counter anti-incumbency, which could give the party an edge in specific seats. On the other hand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren has been leveraging development initiatives and a strong grassroots presence to consolidate the JMM’s position. The clash between the Modi government’s development model and the Soren administration’s local focus has heightened the stakes.
Opinion polls and agencies remain divided in predicting a clear winner. While some surveys favour the BJP, others suggest the INDIA’s alliance is leading. This uncertainty has kept both voters and analysts on edge. Still, based on our ground reports we are hazarding a guess ahead of the counting of votes.
Party-Wise Breakdown
BJP: Contesting 66 seats, dominant in 25 seats.
JMM: Contesting 43 seats, strong in 15 seats.
Congress: Leading on 2 seats without a contest
AJSU: Predicted to win 1 seat with minimal competition
Additionally, 41 constituencies are witnessing tight contests
Constituency-Wise Analysis
1. Rajmahal (JMM 🪃)
Muslim and tribal communities, comprising 50% of voters, strongly back the JMM. The BJP, which has previously won here, faces an uphill battle.
2. Borio (BJP 🪷)
BJP’s Lobin Hembrom is ahead, combining tribal votes with the BJP’s core support base.
3. Barhait (JMM 🪃)
Chief Minister Hemant Soren is poised for a comfortable victory, with no significant challenge from the BJP.
4. Littipara (JMM 🪃)
A traditional JMM stronghold, the seat faces competition, but JMM retains the edge.
5. Pakur (Congress ✋)
The sympathy wave for the jailed former MLA’s wife works in Congress’s favor. However, triangular competition arises with AJSU’s Muslim candidate and BJP’s Pinku Shukla.
6. Maheshpur (JMM)
This seat witnesses a tough contest. BJP’s Navneet Hembram, a former DSP, campaigns vigorously but trails slightly behind JMM.
7. Mandu (AJSU)
A division of Muslim votes creates a tight contest between AJSU and Congress, with AJSU slightly ahead.
8. Tundi (JMM)
The JMM is set for an easy win, as the BJP’s candidate struggles to gain traction.
9. Shikaripara (JMM)
A tough fight, but JMM holds a slight advantage due to its grassroots efforts.
10. Nala (BJP)
Increased voter turnout works in BJP’s favour, reducing anti-incumbency.
11. Jamtara (Congress)
Congress leads in this Muslim-tribal seat, though the BJP benefits from vote splitting by JMM defectors. Sita Soren is contesting.
12. Dumka (BJP)
A high-stakes battle, with BJP’s Sunil Soren leveraging the Safa Ho community’s support against JMM’s Basant Soren.
13. Jama (BJP)
BJP gains due to a third-party challenge from JMM rebel Ramkrishna Hembrom.
14. Jarmundi (BJP)
Congress struggles with anti-incumbency, boosting BJP’s chances.
15. Dumri (JMM)
JMM capitalizes on its Lok Sabha success in a three-way contest.
16. Madhupur (JMM)
A tight contest hinges on BJP’s reliance on former MLA Raj Paliwar’s influence.
17. Sarath (JMM)
Both candidates hail from the same cast Bhumihar, but BJP’s internal discord aids JMM.
18. Deoghar (BJP)
BJP’s traditional Hindu vote base secures its lead in a closely fought battle.
19. Poreyahat (Congress)
Congress benefits from strong Yadav voter support.
20. Godda (RJD)
RJD’s Sanjay Yadav capitalizes on anti-incumbency against BJP’s sitting MLA
21.Mahagama (Congress)
This seat sees a tight contest with Deepika Pandey Singh benefiting from support from both Kurmi and Teli voters. However, Ashok Mandal’s appeal is yet to make a significant impact.
22. Gomia (JMM )
JMM holds an edge in this Kurmi-dominated seat, despite some anti-incumbency sentiment. BJP’s Dr. Lambodar Mahato faces difficulty in unseating JMM.
23. Bermo (Congress )
A three-way fight with Jairam Mahto, Ravindra Pandey, and Anoop Singh competing fiercely. Jairam Mahto, with his loyalists like Farzan Ansari, ensures Congress remains in contention.
24. Bagodar (CPI-ML)
Vinod Singh’s clean image and amicable personality have given him an advantage. However, the vote division created by Dr. Salim Ansari could affect the final result.
25. Jamua (JMM)
JMM’s Kedarnath Hajra is in a tight fight against BJP’s recently joined Manju Kumari. BJP’s internal coordination issues favor JMM.
26. Gandey (JMM)
This seat remains tight, as the local population largely supports Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s wife, but BJP’s Munia Devi offers a strong challenge.
27. Giridih (BJP)
Giridih remains a BJP stronghold, with the party gaining momentum after a prior defeat in 2019. Local anti-incumbency may still challenge BJP’s hold.
28. Bokaro (BJP)
A tightly contested seat where BJP’s ground-level efforts are facing competition from Congress’s Samresh Singh’s daughter, who holds significant local support.
29.Chandankiyari (BJP)
BJP leads due to the decisive role of the Bhumihar society, and their extensive campaign is yielding positive results. However, there remains competition from Congress.
30. Nirsa (CPI-ML)
The anti-incumbency sentiment towards BJP has worked in favor of CPI-ML, which has gained traction, especially with the support of local people’s issues.
31. Sindri (CPI-ML)
CPI-ML’s united front has put BJP on the back foot. A strong showing by the left parties makes this contest closer than expected.
32. Khijri (Congress)
BJP’s wrong candidate choice has allowed JKM to attract significant support, complicating the race for Congress.
33.Ramgarh (Congress )
A triangular fight where the JKM is expected to pull in over 60,000 votes, putting Congress in a strong position to win against AJSU’s Sunita Devi.
34. Jharia (BJP)
BJP’s struggle with internal factionalism makes this contest close. The competition between Devrani and Jethani has added a unique dynamic to the seat.
35. Baghmara (BJP)
This three-way fight with BJP’s Shatrughan Mahto, Congress’s Jaleshwar Mahato, and a candidate from Yadav society keeps the seat highly contested. BJP currently holds a slight edge.
36. Silli (AJSU)
AJSU has a strong lead, mainly due to its excellent work on development projects in the region.
37. Koderma (RJD)
Anti-incumbency sentiment has helped RJD’s Subhash Yadav make a mark. BJP’s Neera Yadav faces tough competition due to the independent candidate Shalini Gupta cutting into BJP’s votes.
38. Barkattha (JMM )
BJP’s Amit Yadav struggles with anti-incumbency, while Samir Mehta of JMM attempts to grab the seat.
39. Barhi (BJP)
With the Samajwadi Party and Congress contesting separately, this division of votes benefits BJP, which is currently ahead.
40. Barkagaon (BJP)
BJP has regained an advantage after a rally by Yogi Adityanath, where minority and majority votes have been divided. BJP is currently in the lead.
41. Hazaribagh (BJP )
BJP continues to hold Hazaribagh with the support of Munna Singh, despite Pradeep Prasad’s personal connections and leadership appeal.
42. Simaria (SC) (BJP)
BJP’s Ujjwal Das leads here, backed by his strong local ties and a history of working with the party for many years.
43. Chatra (SC) (RJD)
Janardan Paswan is a strong candidate with excellent ground support. Congress’s Rasmi Prakash, backed by her family’s influence, faces tough competition.
44. Bahragor (JMM 🪃) *
A tight fight here, with Dineshanand focusing on local issues. The opposition is trying to leverage anti-incumbency, making this seat one of the most watched.
45. Ghatshila (ST) (JMM)
Champai oren’s son Babulal Soren faces internal division within BJP, allowing JMM to maintain its position.
46. Potka (ST) (BJP )
The battle here is between JMM MLA Sanjiv Sardar and Meera Munda. BJP is poised to take the lead, thanks to anti-incumbency against the current MLA.
47. Jugsalai (SC) (AJSU)
With a BJP-AJSU alliance in place, Ramchandra Sahis’ popularity has made this a strong contest. The alliance secures a noticeable advantage here.
48. Jamshedpur East (BJP)
A tight contest between Congress’s Ajoy Kumar and BJP’s Raghubar Das’s daughter in law. Both are fighting fiercely for the seat.
49. Jamshedpur West (JD(U)
This constituency sees a strong fight between Health Minister Banna Gupta and Saryu Roy, where Roy’s appeal to minority votes has made it an exciting contest.
50. Ichagarh (JMM)
Sabita Mahto has made a mark with her active campaigning, giving her a slight lead over her opponents.
51. Seraikela (ST) (BJP)
While Champai Soren’s influence is strong, BJP has been organizing an effective campaign in this region to challenge JMM’s lead.
52. Chaibasa (ST) (JMM)
Cabinet Minister Deepak Birua is enjoying a strong position due to his development efforts, securing his place with a firm lead.
53. Majhgaon (ST) (JMM)
JMM holds a secure position in this constituency, with the party’s stronghold and local leadership effectively rallying voters.
54.Jagannathpur (ST) (BJP)
BJP’s Geeta Koda and the party’s strong alliance are proving effective in ensuring the seat remains in BJP’s control.
55.Manoharpur (ST) (JMM)
JMM holds this seat comfortably as AJSU struggles to make an impact in this tribal-heavy constituency.
56. Chakradharpur (ST) (JMM )
This seat is a highly contested one, with JMM and BJP neck-and-neck in terms of support.
57.Kharsawan (ST) (JMM)
Another tight fight, where JMM’s candidate is favoured, but BJP is gaining ground due to its strong local backing.
58. Tamar (ST) (JMM)
This seat is under tight scrutiny as Raja Peter faces fierce competition from Vikas Singh Munda. JMM is likely to edge out, though the margin will be narrow.
59. Torpa (ST) (JMM )
JMM remains favoured here, with Sudip Gudiya’s hard work and anti-incumbency against the BJP-backed Koche Munda giving JMM the upper hand.
60. Ranchi (BJP)
Ranchi remains a clear win for BJP after internal conflicts within the Congress party.
61. Hatia (BJP)
A strong contest between BJP’s Ajay Nath Shahdeo and Navin Jaiswal keeps this seat extremely competitive.
62. Kanke (SC) (BJP)
BJP’s Dr. Jeetu Charan Ram secures an easy victory, with strong support from the party’s core voters.
63. Mandar (ST) (BJP)
A tough battle between BJP’s Sunny Toppo and Shilpi Neha Tirkey. With strong support from the tribal vote bank, Sunny Toppo holds a slight lead, but the competition remains close.
64. Sisai (ST) (BJP)
Dr. Arun Oraon’s popularity and administrative experience help BJP gain a solid foothold in this seat, putting it in a strong position to win.
65. Gumla (ST) (BJP)
A highly competitive seat, where BJP’s Sudarshan Bhagat is leveraging his widespread public outreach. However, anti-incumbency against the current JMM MLA and potential support from Sarna tribals could make this a nail-biting finish.
66. Bishunpur (ST) (JMM)
JMM’s Chamra Linda, facing strong competition from independent Jagannath Oraon and BJP, has a narrow lead. Jagannath Oraon’s campaign could cut into BJP’s votes, potentially benefiting JMM.
67. Simdega (ST) (BJP)
Congress struggles with internal issues, giving BJP’s candidate an advantage. However, the presence of an independent candidate and factionalism within the Congress makes this contest tighter.
68. Kolebira (ST) (Congress)
Congress retains control over this seat with its strong focus on local development issues. The seat remains a firm stronghold for Congress.
69. Lohardaga (ST) (Congress )
A fierce fight between Congress’s Dr. Rameshwar Oraon and AJSU’s candidate. Rameshwar Oraon’s work as Finance Minister has given him significant local support, but AJSU’s strong campaigning makes it a tough contest.
70. Manika (ST) (BJP)
In a tough contest between BJP’s Hare Krishna Singh and Congress’s Ramchandra Singh, BJP’s core voter base has given the party an edge, though Congress remains a strong competitor.
71. Latehar (SC) (BJP)
BJP is positioned to win this seat against JMM’s Baidyanath Ram, aided by anti-incumbency sentiment. BJP has focused on development and key regional issues to maintain its edge.
72. Panki (BJP)
BJP’s Bittu Singh is capitalizing on the internal fragmentation of Congress and the absence of a strong challenger, securing a likely victory.
73. Daltonganj (BJP)
A three-way fight with BJP’s Alok Chaurasia, Congress, and independent Dilip Singh Namdhari makes this a tight contest. BJP’s stronghold faces disruption from an aggressive independent campaign, making it a competitive battle.
74. Vishrampur (BJP)
Despite Congress and RJD’s alliance, the influence of a ‘Bahubali’s wife, Jagriti Dubey has turned this into a triangular contest, making it highly unpredictable. BJP and RJD are likely to contest fiercely.
75. Chhatarpur (SC) (BJP)
BJP’s Pushpa Devi appears in a strong position, aided by minimal anti-incumbency. However, Congress and RJD’s presence keep the seat competitive.
76. Hussainabad (RJD )
The BJP faces a split vote among three rebel candidates, which has opened up a clear path for RJD’s candidate to secure victory in this constituency.
77. Garhwa (JMM)
JMM’s Mithilesh Thakur remains the favoured candidate in this seat, though BJP’s Satyendra Nath Tiwari is pushing hard for an upset.
78. Bhawanathpur (JMM)
A tough contest between BJP’s Bhanu Pratap Shahi and Congress’s Anant Pratap Dev. The outcome remains uncertain due to significant support for both candidates in the region.
79. Dhanwar (BJP)
BJP’s Babulal Marandi, supported by a strong base of Yadav and Bhumihar voters, has an edge. However, Congress and RJD’s combined efforts create a fiercely contested seat.
80. Hazaribagh (BJP )
Hazaribagh remains a BJP stronghold, with Munna Singh consolidating the party’s position. However, Pradeep Prasad’s grassroots efforts and personal appeal could give him a fighting chance.
Conclusion
The Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024 represent a battle of ideologies and governance models. While NDA banks on PM Modi’s vision for development, INDIA relies on its local appeal and caste coalitions. The elections are far from predictable, with 41 swing constituencies set to decide the outcome.
These tough contests reflect not just the political aspirations of the candidates but also the electorate’s expectations for development, leadership, and representation. The results will undoubtedly shape Jharkhand’s political landscape for years to come.
