SWAMI DIVYA GYAN
The 2024 Jharkhand assembly elections are shaping to be a highly contested political battleground, particularly in the tribal-dominated Santhal Pargana region. With eight key constituencies poised for fierce electoral competition, the BJP faces formidable opposition from the INDI alliance, primarily comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress. Each constituency brings its own set of challenges, shaped by evolving demographics, caste and community dynamics, shifting alliances, and the deep-rooted influence of regional leaders. This analysis delves into the prospective BJP candidates and the obstacles they are likely to face from their opposition counterparts. From entrenched incumbents to emerging political forces, the following breakdown provides an in-depth look at the electoral landscape and the hurdles the BJP must overcome to make significant inroads in these constituencies.
Demographic shift a roadblock for BJP in Rajmahal
Anant Kumar Ojha of the BJP is expected to contest from Rajmahal, focusing heavily on his developmental work. However, this constituency has undergone significant demographic changes in recent years, particularly with a rise in the Muslim population. This shift is expected to benefit the opposition, with Mohammed Tajuddin or Kitabuddin Shaikh from Congress/JMM likely to gain support from this demographic.
Moreover, Motilal Sarkar, from the Nishad community and contesting under the banner of the Jairam Mahto Party (JKLM), is expected to split the BJP’s traditional vote base, particularly among Nishad voters. In this multi-cornered contest, the BJP will need to consolidate its Hindu and tribal votes to secure a win. Rajmahal has historically swung between JMM and BJP, with the BJP winning the last election.
Contest between two JMM heavyweights in Borio likely
In Borio, Lobin Hembrom is poised to be the BJP candidate after defecting from the JMM, where he built a solid voter base. Hembrom’s defection could benefit the BJP, as he retains a strong following due to his grassroots connections with tribal voters. On the other hand, Hemlal Murmu, a former MP and prominent JMM leader, has long-standing influence in the constituency.
This tribal-dominated seat will likely be a close race, with both Hembrom and Murmu having established bases. Hembrom’s recent move to the BJP gives the party a better chance, as he carries his supporters with him, but Murmu’s political experience makes him a formidable opponent. If Hembrom manages to hold onto his tribal voter base, the BJP could make significant inroads, making the race a 50-50 battle.
Cakewalk for Hemant Soren in Barhait likely
Barhait has been a traditional stronghold for Jharkhand’s Chief Minister Hemant Soren of JMM, and this is expected to continue in the 2024 election. Soren’s deep-rooted influence in the region, combined with his strong track record in tribal welfare, has made it difficult for the BJP to gain any significant ground in this constituency.
BJP’s potential candidates, Simon Malto and Renuka Murmu, have not been able to build the necessary political presence or local support to challenge Soren’s dominance. Barhait is seen as a safe seat for the chief minister, and unless the BJP can rally strong grassroots support, it is unlikely they will pose a serious threat. Soren’s consistent engagement with tribal communities and his political stature make Barhait a challenging contest for any BJP candidate.
Keen contest between BJP and JMM in Litipara
Litipara is a tribal-dominated constituency with a significant Christian population. It traditionally supports the INDI alliance (primarily JMM and Congress). Paritosh Soren of the BJP enjoys some level of support among tribal voters, but the presence of Dinesh William Marandi of the JMM poses a significant challenge.
Marandi is expected to capitalise on both the Christian and tribal votes, giving him an advantage in this constituency. The contest is likely to be close, with Marandi benefiting from the JMM’s established support base in the region. For the BJP to stand a chance, they will need to focus on consolidating tribal voters and mitigating the influence of the Christian community, which has consistently supported JMM. Litipara’s electorate is known for leaning towards the JMM, making it a tough battle for BJP.
BJP may pick up a new face in Nala
In the Nala assembly constituency, Rabindra Nath Mahto of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is the sitting MLA and currently serves as the Speaker of the Jharkhand Legislative Assembly. Mahto has been a dominant figure in the constituency, successfully defending his seat for multiple terms, and his role as Speaker gives him considerable political influence. However, the BJP may field Madhav Chandra Mahto as a fresh face for the upcoming election, especially after Satyanand Jha Batul’s repeated unsuccessful attempts. Madhav Chandra Mahto has built a strong base, particularly among Yadav voters, which could help consolidate a vote that was historically divided between various independents and smaller parties. If he secures the BJP ticket, this could create a competitive race, although he will face an uphill task against the politically entrenched Ravindra Nath Mahto, who has extensive local support.
Sita Soren set to challenge Irfan in Jamtara
In Jamtara, the political contest could see Sita Soren, daughter-in-law of Shibu Soren, as a possible BJP candidate. Her entry into the BJP has drawn attention due to her family’s long political legacy, but her candidacy presents unique challenges. The current MLA and Congress heavyweight Dr Irfan Ansari, who is also a cabinet minister in Jharkhand, enjoys significant support, particularly from the minority population, which constitutes a large portion of Jamtara’s electorate. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, Sita Soren failed to secure a lead in this constituency, which highlights the challenge she faces against Dr Ansari. The minority voters have traditionally backed Congress, and Dr Ansari’s strong local presence will require Sita Soren to mobilize both tribal voters and cut into the minority vote if she hopes to win.
Political dynamics changes in Dumka after the Anti-conversion law
In Dumka, Louis Marandi was once a key BJP figure, having secured strong support from tribal communities and the Church. However, the political dynamics changed significantly after the passing of the Jharkhand Dharmantaran Nishedh Adhiniyam 2017 (Anti-Conversion Law), which was introduced by the BJP government. The law led to discontent among Christian groups, who felt targeted by its provisions, and this eroded Louis Marandi’s support base in Dumka. The Church, which once backed her, started opposing her candidacy, contributing to her losses in the 2019 Assembly election and the subsequent by-election.
Basant Soren, the younger brother of Chief Minister Hemant Soren, took advantage of this shift in political dynamics, securing a victory and further strengthening the Soren family’s political stronghold in Dumka. Despite her experience and past influence, Louis Marandi faces an uphill battle against Basant Soren, who enjoys widespread support among the tribal voters, making it difficult for the BJP to reclaim this seat.
BJP stands a chance in Madhupur if Raj Paliwar makes friends with Nishikant Dubey
In Madhupur, Raj Paliwar, a former BJP cabinet minister, is a strong contender for the upcoming election. He has demonstrated significant administrative capabilities and has a solid support base. However, Hafizul Ansari, the sitting MLA and a cabinet minister in the current Jharkhand government holds a significant advantage due to his backing from the large minority population, which makes up a substantial portion of the electorate. Ansari’s influence is further solidified by his strong local connections and his position within the state government.
Raj Paliwar also faces internal party challenges, particularly with MP Nishikant Dubey, which could weaken his campaign. If Paliwar can resolve these disputes and secure the support of Nishikant Dubey, the BJP could consolidate its vote and present a strong challenge to Hafizul Ansari. However, without this internal unity, Ansari’s strong minority support and entrenched local influence give him the upper hand in this constituency.
Intricate labyrinth of challenges for BJP
In summation, the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections present an intricate labyrinth of challenges for the BJP across eight pivotal constituencies within the Santhal Pargana region, where they contend with formidable adversaries from the INDI alliance, particularly JMM and Congress. These constituencies are fraught with multifaceted socio-political dynamics that complicate the BJP’s electoral prospects. Despite fielding seasoned candidates, the BJP faces Sisyphean struggles in tribal strongholds like Barhait, Litipara, and Dumka, where entrenched hegemons such as Hemant Soren and his political kin dominate, fortified by longstanding tribal loyalties. The BJP’s trajectory towards electoral ascendancy necessitates the deft consolidation of disparate voter blocs—tribal, Hindu, and minority—while simultaneously navigating internecine discord and mitigating vote fragmentation spurred by peripheral candidates.
In constituencies like Rajmahal and Madhupur, the vicissitudes of demographic transformations, particularly the influence of a growing minority population, coupled with minority-backed adversaries, further exacerbate the BJP’s predicament, necessitating a Herculean effort to overcome.
Meanwhile, in Borio, Nala, and Jamtara, the interplay of local allegiances, emerging opposition forces, and entrenched political legacies adds layers of complexity. Nonetheless, with strategic sagacity, a galvanizing voter outreach, and the amelioration of intra-party fissures, the BJP may yet extricate itself from the electoral quagmire in select constituencies. Ultimately, this electoral contest will serve as an exegesis on the BJP’s ability to deftly traverse the Byzantine intricacies of Santhal Pargana’s political terrain, where opposition amalgamations and local exigencies play a crucial role in determining the calculus of victory.
