SWAMI DIVYAGYAN
Ranchi, Nov 20: The 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections witnessed a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Both parties relied on unique strategies and key issues, ranging from seat allocation to campaign approaches and voter influence tactics, to gain an edge over each other.
Challenge of Strike Rates
To form the government in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, a party needs to secure at least 41 seats. However, the path to this goal varies significantly for the BJP and the JMM:
The BJP contested 66 out of 81 seats and requires a 62% strike rate to achieve its target.
On the other hand, the JMM contested only 43 seats, necessitating a 95% strike rate to win 41 seats—a much tougher challenge.
This disparity highlights how the JMM’s decision to allocate more seats to its allies has limited its scope, while the BJP has chosen to rely heavily on its core vote bank and organisational strength by contesting most of the seats.
BJP’s Strategy: Strong Grip and Tactical Campaigning
The BJP’s decision to contest 66 seats while giving only 15 seats to its allies demonstrates the party’s confidence in its organisational strength. This approach ensured the BJP had the majority of the control while still maintaining a working relationship with its allies.
Infiltration as a Divisive Issue
One of the BJP’s key strategies was aggressively raising the issue of infiltration. The party targeted tribal and minority areas, portraying the JMM and its allies as protectors of illegal immigrants, which the BJP claimed were a threat to the state’s culture and security. This narrative helped the BJP consolidate its core voter base while sowing discord in the JMM’s traditional support groups.
Power of Star Campaigners
The BJP deployed prominent leaders such as Yogi Adityanath, Amit Shah, Himanta Biswa Sarma, and Shivraj Singh Chouhan to campaign in constituencies like Chatra, Daltonganj, and Hussainabad. These rallies energised BJP supporters and sent a clear signal that the party’s top leadership was serious about Jharkhand.
Whisper Effect: Covert Campaigning
A unique aspect of the BJP’s strategy was the “Whisper Effect,” wherein anonymous campaigners covertly entered various regions to understand local dynamics and subtly influence voters. This professional poll management approach allowed the BJP to penetrate the JMM strongholds and sway public opinion.
JMM’s Strategy: Dependence on Allies and Regional Focus
The JMM gave 38 of the 81 seats to its allies—Congress, RJD, and others—and contested only 43 seats itself. While this decision was aimed at maximizing the alliance’s overall appeal, it also put immense pressure on the JMM to deliver an almost flawless performance on its limited seats.
Weaknesses in the First Phase
In the first phase, the JMM’s performance fell short of expectations. The party focused primarily on reserved constituencies but failed to coordinate effectively with the Congress and other allies. Chief Minister Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren campaigned extensively in constituencies like Bhavanathpur and Garhwa, but areas like Manika, Daltonganj, and Hussainabad saw limited JMM activity. These constituencies, with significant tribal and minority populations, required a more robust outreach.
Improved Coordination in Second Phase
In the second phase, the JMM made visible efforts to improve its strategy. The party strengthened coordination with the Congress and other allies, with Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren campaigning for Congress candidates. While this active engagement could boost alliance morale, the lack of similar efforts in the first phase limited the JMM’s overall gains.
INDIA Alliance: Weakness in Campaigning
The alliance of JMM, Congress, and other parties, known as the INDIA Alliance, struggled to match the BJP’s campaigning strength:
Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge focused primarily on Congress candidates, leaving little support for the JMM and other allies.
The lack of high-level campaigning for the JMM’s candidates exposed coordination gaps within the alliance.
Although the second phase saw improved collaboration, this effort came too late to undo the impact of earlier weaknesses.
Phase-wise Election Analysis
First Phase: BJP’s Advantage and JMM’s Challenges
In the first phase, the BJP capitalised on its star campaigners and covert strategies to gain a foothold. The JMM’s over-reliance on allies and insufficient focus on its core areas left it struggling to maintain its influence in critical constituencies.
Second Phase: A Decisive Battle
The second phase saw the JMM putting more effort into coordination with allies and strengthening its tribal and minority vote bank. However, the BJP continued to maintain its momentum through aggressive campaigning and a well-organized outreach program.
Who Will Triumph?
The 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections are not just a battle for seats but a test of political strategies, campaign effectiveness, and alliance strength.
The BJP’s aggressive campaigning, organisational capabilities, and professional poll management have positioned it as a strong contender.
The JMM’s late improvements in strategy may bolster its chances, but the weaknesses in the first phase could weigh heavily on its performance.
Ultimately, the people of Jharkhand hold the key to deciding the outcome. These elections will not only shape the political landscape of the state but also set a precedent for future electoral battles.
