SWAMI DIVYA GYAN
As Jharkhand gears up for the second phase of the 2024 assembly elections, the electoral landscape presents unique challenges and opportunities. This analytical study delves into the geographical, demographic, and electoral disparities across the 38 constituencies, exploring how these variables impact election strategies and potential outcomes.
Geographical Disparities: Mandu vs. Jharia
Mandu, the largest constituency by area, contrasts starkly with Jharia, the smallest. Such differences in size pose unique logistical challenges for political campaigns. Research into large constituencies like Mandu suggests that larger areas often lead to voter disengagement, as candidates face difficulties in reaching remote areas. Studies conducted during the 2019 elections showed that voter turnout tends to be lower in geographically expansive constituencies due to limited candidate engagement and communication gaps.
On the other hand, smaller constituencies like Jharia allow for more direct voter contact, with candidates often able to focus on micro-level campaigning. Political science research emphasises that smaller areas provide candidates with more flexibility to address voters’ concerns and offer personalised communication directly, thus influencing higher voter turnout.
Population Disparity: Bokaro vs. Silli
From a population perspective, Bokaro emerges as the largest constituency, while Silli is the smallest. Larger populations like Bokaro’s present the need for more extensive campaign resources. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) highlights that high-density areas like Bokaro require sophisticated data management systems to segment the electorate based on caste, religion, and other socio-economic factors to craft tailored messages. This means parties need to adopt a multi-faceted approach to address different community interests within the same constituency.
Smaller constituencies, such as Silli, by contrast, offer a more cohesive voter base where demographic diversity is less pronounced, leading to simpler electoral strategies. According to a CSDS report on elections, voter behaviour in smaller constituencies tends to be driven by local issues and candidate reputations, rather than national party platforms.
Voter Disparity: Bokaro vs. Littipara
In terms of voter numbers, Bokaro once again dominates as the largest, while Littipara has the fewest voters. This voter disparity plays a significant role in election strategy. Election Commission of India data from previous elections indicates that constituencies with larger voter bases, like Bokaro, often see higher competition, requiring multiple rallies, extensive media campaigns, and more diverse candidate outreach. Larger voter pools necessitate greater political investments, making them crucial battlegrounds for major parties.
Conversely, Littipara, with its smaller voter base, demands focused, community-based campaigning. Political behaviour studies suggest that smaller constituencies often witness tighter-knit political networks, where local leaders wield substantial influence over voting patterns. In such areas, candidates must rely more on grassroots connections and traditional campaigning methods to secure votes.
Gender Disparity in Voter Demographics
The electoral rolls for this phase reveal a near balance between male (62,79,029) and female (60,79,019) voters. However, research shows that female voter turnout often lags behind male turnout, particularly in rural areas. A World Bank study on Indian elections found that rural women often face mobility issues, social restrictions, and lower political awareness, leading to lower engagement. Political parties that effectively address women’s issues—such as healthcare, education, and welfare schemes—often succeed in narrowing this gender turnout gap.
In Jharkhand, women voters are particularly influenced by issues surrounding rural employment (under schemes like MNREGA), food security (through the public distribution system), and health services. A candidate’s ability to connect with women voters, therefore, could serve as a significant electoral advantage in tightly contested seats.
Electoral Campaigns in Urban vs. Rural Voting Centres
Of the 14,218 voting centres for the second phase, 2,414 are in urban areas, and 11,804 are in rural regions. This division emphasises the rural-urban electoral dynamic, which demands differentiated campaign strategies. Research from The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy reveals that urban voters tend to prioritise issues like infrastructure, jobs, and digital services, while rural voters are more focused on agriculture, land rights, and water resources.
Political parties need to adopt a dual strategy to cater to both urban and rural electorates. In urban areas, digital campaigns, social media outreach, and issue-specific debates around development projects may resonate more, while in rural areas, traditional campaigning methods—door-to-door outreach, local rallies, and the use of local influencers—prove more effective.
Model Code of Conduct and Security Measures
With the implementation of the Model Code of Conduct, 12 cases of violations have been registered so far, with the highest number (8) in the Garhwa district. Election data from previous years highlights that violations often correlate with the intensity of the election battle in certain regions. Research conducted by the Election Commission of India shows that constituencies with tight electoral races tend to have higher instances of code violations as parties push the boundaries to gain an edge.
In terms of security, 290 checkpoints have been established, and ₹12.5 crores in illegal materials and cash have been seized. Studies on electoral fraud prevention underscore that such measures are essential to ensuring free and fair elections. However, the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) suggests that stronger punitive actions are needed to deter recurrent offenders and ensure compliance with election norms.
Conclusion
The second phase of elections in Jharkhand presents a complex but fascinating study of electoral dynamics. The wide range of disparities—whether in terms of geography, population, or voter demographics—requires political parties to adopt diverse and sophisticated strategies to engage voters effectively. As the political landscape evolves, the key to electoral success will lie in a candidate’s ability to navigate these regional differences, address voter-specific concerns, and leverage the socio-economic realities of each constituency.
