SUBHASH MISHRA
Dhanbad, Nov 16: In the Baghmara assembly seat in Dhanbad, a triangular contest has emerged, sparked by an independent candidate’s efforts to mobilize the Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank, adding complexity to the direct fight between the BJP and Congress.
While 13 candidates are in the fray, the main battle is expected to be between BJP’s Shatrughan Mahto and Congress’ Jaleshwar Mahto. This contest mirrors the 2019 assembly elections, where both parties were in direct competition.
Rohit Yadav’s ‘MY’ equation as a third force
Independent candidate Rohit Yadav, a former Congress rebel, has gained attention by rallying Muslim and Yadav voters, creating a significant third force in the contest. To match the campaigns of national leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Amit Shah, Yadav has fielded actress Akshara Singh to appeal to voters.
Javed Reja, Congress secretary who resigned from the party, campaigned for Yadav, claiming, “If the presence of crowd at the meeting can be considered a parameter of winning chance, even a child can predict who is going to win. Rohit Yadav has appeared as a force in this election to reckon with.”
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Impact of ‘MY’ equation on voting dynamics
Rohit Yadav has focused his campaign on Muslim and Yadav-dominated areas, aiming to consolidate the ‘MY’ vote base.
A political expert from Baghmara noted that even if Rohit Yadav secures 100% of the ‘MY’ equation votes, it may not be enough for him to win the election unless he gains broad support from all other sections of the electorate.
“If Rohit Yadav shares Muslim votes, it would impact the chances of Congress candidate Jaleshwar Mahto, and at the same time, his division of Nonia, Rawani, and Bauri caste votes would hit Shatrughan Mahto of BJP,” the expert said.
BJP’s stronghold in Baghmara and Dhulu Mahto’s influence
Baghmara has long been considered a stronghold for BJP, especially due to the influence of BJP MP Dhulu Mahto, who won this seat three times in 2009, 2014, and 2019, before being elected to the Lok Sabha in 2024.
Despite his narrow 824-vote victory over former MLA Jaleshwar Mahto in the 2019 assembly elections, Dhulu Mahto’s substantial win in the Dhanbad Lok Sabha seat strengthened his political base. As a result, the BJP nominated his elder brother, Shatrughan Mahto, for the assembly seat.
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Congress’ den in 1980s and 1990s
Historically, the Baghmara constituency was a stronghold of the Congress in the 1980s and 1990s, with the late trade union leader and former minister OP Lal winning three consecutive terms from 1985 to 1995.
OP Lal defeated Jaleshwer Mahto, who was then a candidate of the JMM, in 1990 and 1995. However, Jaleshwer Mahto exacted revenge in the 2000 and 2005 elections.
Rohit Yadav, the independent candidate, was a trusted party worker of OP Lal and now seeks to carry forward his legacy in the region.
