Managing internal rifts over poll list key to BJP’s electoral prospects in Jharkhand

SWAMI DIVYA GYAN

 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), often hailed as the world’s largest political party, is facing internal unrest in Jharkhand ahead of the assembly elections. Several prominent leaders have either defected to other parties, such as Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), or announced plans to contest as independent candidates. This upheaval, particularly following the release of the party’s candidate list, has triggered a wave of dissatisfaction among many loyal party members, forcing the leadership to implement urgent damage control measures.

 

Causes of Defections and Discontent

 

2. Ticket Distribution and Internal Politics: The primary trigger for the defections is dissatisfaction with the ticket distribution process. Party insiders suggest that the focus on fielding “winning candidates” has led to alienation among long-serving party members, many of whom feel overlooked in favour of new entrants. Research into party dynamics during election season, such as the studies conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), suggests that internal rifts often emerge when new candidates from rival parties are given prominence over loyal party workers. In the case of the BJP, prominent leaders from other parties have been granted tickets, which has stirred discontent among veteran leaders.
3. Local Political Equations: Jharkhand’s political landscape is highly nuanced, with local political equations playing a crucial role. Leaders like Satyanand Jha Batul and Mistri Soren have deep roots in their constituencies, and their defection from the BJP can disrupt traditional vote banks. Political research indicates that defections from dominant parties can lead to voter confusion and a split in traditional party votes, often benefiting the opposition. The decision of Satyanand Jha to contest as an independent candidate from Nala further complicates the BJP’s position, as he commands significant local support.
4. Regional Strongholds and Identity Politics: Jharkhand’s politics is deeply rooted in regional identity and tribal influence. Leaders like Mistri Soren, who have long served as tribal representatives, often wield significant influence in regions like Maheshpur. The loss of such figures could lead to a shift in voter loyalty, especially in areas where the BJP has historically relied on the support of tribal communities. Research on identity politics in India, including reports from The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy, highlights that regional leaders are often more effective in mobilising voters than national figures, especially in tribal-dominated areas like Jharkhand.

BJP’s Damage Control Strategy

2. Leadership Intervention: The party has quickly mobilised its top leaders to mitigate the damage. Babulal Marandi, BJP state president, has taken the lead in managing the fallout from the defections. Marandi, along with other prominent leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Himanta Biswa Sarma, are actively engaging with disgruntled leaders to bring them back into the fold.
3. Targeted Negotiations: In a notable success, former MLA Menka Sardar retracted her resignation and agreed to campaign for the party. This suggests that the BJP’s efforts to engage with discontented leaders at a personal level have started yielding results. Political strategists have long advocated for personalised negotiations during election periods, as seen in studies by Political Science Review, which indicate that emotional appeals and future promises often lead to defectors reconsidering their stance.
4. Containing Independent Candidacies: The party is also addressing the challenge posed by leaders announcing their independent candidacies. For example, Vinod Singh and Sandeep Verma, both of whom announced their decision to contest independently, are being persuaded to reconsider. If these leaders are successfully convinced to return to the BJP camp, it will prevent a split in the party’s voter base, which can be crucial in close electoral contests. Studies on electoral behaviour indicate that independent candidates, especially those with previous party affiliations, can significantly dent the vote share of major parties.

Also Read: Jharkhand assembly polls present a complex study of electoral dynamics

Impact on BJP’s Electoral Prospects

1. Threat of Vote Splitting: The defection of prominent leaders and the rise of independent candidates could split the BJP’s vote share in key constituencies. Studies by CSDS have shown that in highly competitive constituencies, even a small fraction of votes diverted to independent candidates can change the election outcome. This is particularly relevant in constituencies like Nala and Sarath, where local leaders like Satyanand Jha and Chunna Singh wield considerable influence.
2. Opposition’s Gain: As the BJP grapples with internal turmoil, parties like JMM are positioned to benefit. Political trend analysis from previous elections in Jharkhand indicates that voter disillusionment within a party often leads to a shift towards opposition parties, particularly in tribal and rural constituencies. If the BJP fails to retain its defectors, it risks conceding ground to the JMM and other regional parties, which could alter the electoral balance in the state.

Conclusion

The BJP is currently navigating a critical phase in Jharkhand’s political landscape. With defections, independent candidacies, and dissatisfaction brewing within its ranks, the party is under immense pressure to execute its damage control measures swiftly and effectively. While leadership intervention has yielded some positive results, such as the return of Menka Sardar, challenges remain with other key leaders. How the BJP manages these internal rifts will significantly influence its electoral prospects in the upcoming assembly elections.