PINAKI MAJUMDAR
Jamshedpur, Oct 8: The southwest monsoon is showing clear signs of withdrawal from several parts of the country, indicating a brief lull in rainfall activity over the coming days.
The line of withdrawal currently passes through 20°N/69°E, Veraval, Bharuch, Ujjain, Jhansi, Shahjahanpur and 30°N/81°E, marking a steady north-west to south-east retreat pattern typical for early October.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from the remaining parts of Gujarat, some more regions of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra within the next 3–4 days.
This is in line with the usual monsoon withdrawal timeline, which typically occurs between late September and mid-October.
Synoptic Conditions
Despite the retreating trend, certain atmospheric systems continue to influence localized weather patterns:
A low-level cyclonic circulation persists over northeast Jharkhand and adjoining areas, now seen at about 0.9 Km above mean sea level, sustaining some cloud formation and moisture incursion.
Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over south Bangladesh and neighbourhood at around 1.5 Km above mean sea level, likely aiding isolated convective activity over eastern India.
Rainfall Patterns and Temperature Records
During the past 48 hours, light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms was reported at isolated locations across Jharkhand.
Heavy rainfall was recorded at two stations, with Gobindpur DVC in Dhanbad district registering the highest rainfall of 108 mm on Monday.
Temperatures across the state showed typical post-monsoon variability:
Highest Maximum Temperature: 33.9 °C at Pakur
Lowest Minimum Temperature: 18.7 °C at Latehar
This combination of moderate daytime warmth and relatively cooler nights signals the transitional phase between monsoon and winter in the region.
Outlook: Drier Days Ahead
Meteorologists indicate that Jharkhand and neighbouring states may experience a break in widespread rainfall activity for the next few days as the monsoon currents recede and the atmospheric circulation patterns weaken.
However, isolated thundershowers cannot be ruled out, particularly in parts of eastern Jharkhand influenced by the Bangladesh circulation.
With monsoon conditions normal overall this year, the gradual withdrawal is expected to pave the way for clearer skies, lower humidity, and a slow dip in night-time temperatures, typical of the October transition.
Farmers are also expected to benefit from the break, as it will allow for drying of fields and preparation for the upcoming Rabi season.
