SUMAN K SHRIVASTAVA
Ranchi, Dec 26: The BJP, still recovering from a humiliating defeat in the Jharkhand assembly elections and searching for a saviour, has received some advice from veteran politician and Janata Dal (U)’s sole MLA, Saryu Roy.
Roy, a former BJP leader, advised the party to revisit its electoral strategies from the past, specifically how it secured victories in Jharkhand (then part of Bihar) during the 1995, 1998, and 1999 Lok Sabha elections and the 2000 assembly elections.
According to Roy, this reflection would help the BJP understand why its state vote base has been shrinking. At the time of these successes, Roy was in charge of the BJP’s Vananchal unit. BJP ideologue K N Govindacharya was then heading the team trusted to consolidate the party’s vote base in South Bihar (now Jharkhand).
Lessons from the Past
Roy recalled that the BJP faced internal discontent when Babulal Marandi was appointed president of the Vananchal unit. “Leaders like Karia Munda and Devdas Apte strongly opposed his appointment, and the party organisation was not in good shape. Yet, the BJP managed to perform well during that period,” he recalled.
In 1995, the BJP won the majority of the 41 South Bihar (now Jharkhand) assembly seats. It went on to win 12 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats from the region in 1996 and 1998 and secured 11 seats in 1999. Marandi himself nearly defeated Shibu Soren in Dumka in 1996, losing by just around 5,000 votes. However, in 1998, he turned the tables and defeated Soren, a victory that significantly boosted Marandi’s profile and earned him a position in the Union Council of Ministers as one of four representatives from Bihar.
Why Did Voters Trust the BJP Then?
Roy explained that during that time, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was embroiled in a horse-trading controversy, leading people to doubt its ability to deliver on the promise of a separate Jharkhand state.
“Meanwhile, the BJP, under Marandi’s leadership, changed its strategy and began championing the cause of a separate state. This earned the trust of voters, who believed that only the BJP could achieve the goal of statehood. The results were visible for all to see,” Roy said.
Reasons for the BJP’s Decline
According to Roy, the BJP’s recent defeat was not a sudden development but the result of several factors over time. He highlighted the following issues:
- Office of Profit Complaint Against Hemant Soren: The case against the Chief Minister did not reach a logical conclusion, which gave the impression of it being a fake case.
- ED Investigations: The Enforcement Directorate’s investigation report on the mining scam created doubts in the minds of people. The ED report indicated that the mining scam had been ongoing since 2016, with a greater scale between 2016 and 2019, but no action was taken against those in charge during that period. Meanwhile, the ED aggressively pursued Hemant Soren and his associates, raising suspicions of selective targeting.
- IAS Pooja Singhal Case: While the BJP government gave Singhal a clean chit in the MNREGA case, the ED booked her later, which damaged the BJP’s credibility. Similarly, no action was taken in the liquor scam during the BJP’s rule.
- Attempts to Topple the Hemant Soren Government: After the COVID-19 pandemic, there were two failed attempts to bring down the Soren government, further adding to public distrust.
These actions led people to believe that the BJP and central agencies were selectively targeting Hemant Soren, which hurt the party’s image.
Jharkhand’s Need for Its Own Leader
Roy pointed out that Jharkhand voters want leaders who represent their identity and interests. The BJP, however, relied on outsiders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan (election in-charge) and Himanta Biswa Sarma (co-in-charge) to spearhead its campaign. There was no local face to lead the campaign in Jharkhand. This created an impression that the BJP was a party of outsiders.
“Ironically, the BJP appears to be repeating its mistakes by planning to replace one failed leader (read Babulal Marandi), with another (read Raghubar Das)—an outsider (Chhattisgarh) who was rejected in the 2019 assembly elections. Notably, Roy himself had defeated Das in those elections. The BJP’s tribal vote base had also eroded significantly by 2019, contributing to its loss.
Notably, Raghubar Das, appointed Governor of Odisha over a year back, has resigned and is set to rejoin the BJP tomorrow. According to sources, he is likely to replace Marandi as the BJP state president.
Hemant Soren’s Appeal
“On the other hand, Hemant Soren successfully positioned himself as Jharkhand’s “own man.” His policies and rhetoric resonated with voters, such as advocating for domicile rules based on the 1932 land records, introducing the Sarna code, and demand for Rs 1.36 lakh crores from the Centre. Soren highlighted Jharkhand’s pride and interests, making him relatable and trustworthy in the eyes of the people,” Roy, a crusader against corruption, said.
In contrast, BJP leaders, while possibly good administrators, failed to connect with the local population on these emotional and cultural counts. As Roy concluded, the BJP leaders were simply “not their own people.”
BJP’s electoral performance in 81-member assembly
2000:33 seats
2004:30
2009:17
2014:43
2019:25
2024:21
