SWAMI DIVYA GYAN
Ranchi, Oct 6: With the Jharkhand Assembly elections approaching, discussions about BJP’s ticket distribution have intensified. Various media reports and sources suggest the party is considering dropping some sitting MLAs in its first list.
Constituencies like Ranchi, Dhanbad, Deoghar, and Jamua are at the forefront of this speculation. These constituencies are witnessing possible changes in candidates based on anti-incumbency, organizational discontent, and caste-based equations. Here’s an in-depth analysis of the four key constituencies and the potential candidates involved.
Dhanbad Assembly: MLA Raj Sinha
Raj Sinha, the current MLA from Dhanbad, seems most likely to be dropped. During the Lok Sabha elections, his public statements against the party candidate caused dissatisfaction among party leadership and local workers. This controversy has put his ticket at risk. Additionally, his weak rapport with local workers and concerns over his working style has further compounded the situation.
Another name that has emerged for Dhanbad is L.B. Singh, a relatively new worker within the party. However, if the BJP chooses to field L.B. Singh, it could lead to discontent among the older, more seasoned workers.
Dhanbad is a crucial urban constituency for the BJP, and the party would want a candidate who enjoys both popularity and strong organizational support. In this context, Chandrashekhar Agarwal is emerging as the strongest contender. Agarwal, a veteran party worker, enjoys a robust relationship with the business community in Dhanbad, making him a viable candidate for the seat.
Deoghar Assembly (Reserved for SC): MLA Narayan Das
The Deoghar constituency is reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC), and the current MLA Narayan Das is facing significant odds against retaining his ticket. His inactivity during the Lok Sabha elections and growing distance from the party’s core leadership have raised doubts about his future. Additionally, his strained relations with local party workers further weaken his prospects.
Deoghar, being a culturally and religiously significant seat, presents the BJP with an opportunity to strengthen its hold among the SC community. The party is considering fielding Vinita Paswan, an SC woman leader. Her candidacy would allow the BJP to target both SC and female voters, presenting a dual advantage. Vinita Paswan’s leadership potential aligns with the party’s focus on promoting women in leadership roles, which could benefit BJP electorally in Deoghar.
Jamua Assembly (Reserved for SC): MLA Kedar Hazra
Jamua Assembly, also reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC), sees Kedar Hazra facing anti-incumbency and organisational dissatisfaction. Sources indicate that Kedar Hazra had played a key role in elevating the current district president to his position, but now, the relationship between Hazra and the district president has soured. This growing rift within the organisation contributes to Hazra’s weakening political position.
In addition, Kameshwar Paswan, the state secretary of BJP’s SC Morcha, has emerged as a strong contender for this seat. Paswan’s caste background and influence among the SC voters make him a formidable candidate. In a constituency where SC voters play a decisive role, Paswan’s grassroots support could significantly benefit BJP. His candidacy is seen as a move to stabilize organizational ties and ensure caste-based solidarity in the constituency.
Ranchi Assembly: MLA C.P. Singh
Senior BJP leader C.P. Singh, representing Ranchi, is also facing discussions about his ticket. However, sources suggest that his ticket is relatively safe, given his long-standing loyalty to the party and his strong voter base in the city. C.P. Singh has been a key figure in Ranchi’s politics and has maintained good relations with the party leadership. Despite these strengths, Singh faces a challenge from Bhairav Singh, a staunch Hindutva leader and RSS worker.
Bhairav Singh has garnered considerable support from key figures within the RSS, and his growing popularity among the youth and Hindu nationalist groups is posing a significant challenge to C.P. Singh. However, sources suggest that C.P. Singh’s seat remains safe, primarily due to his experience and long-standing contribution to the party. While Bhairav Singh’s candidacy has energized some within the RSS and the younger members of the party, BJP is unlikely to take risks with a crucial urban seat like Ranchi, where C.P. Singh’s political experience remains invaluable.
Electoral equations and BJP’s strategy
The BJP’s decisions regarding these four constituencies involve various critical factors. Anti-incumbency, internal discontent, caste equations, and party sentiment are all playing a role in determining ticket distribution.
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Anti-incumbency and Discontent:
In constituencies like Dhanbad and Jamua, the growing anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction among party workers have pushed the BJP to consider new faces. Raj Sinha and Kedar Hazra’s leadership has come under scrutiny, and the party is looking for more dynamic candidates. However, the introduction of relatively new names like L.B. Singh could also lead to discontent among the old guard.
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Caste Equations:
Both Deoghar and Jamua are reserved for SC candidates, and the BJP is focused on maintaining a solid caste-based strategy. The candidacies of Vinita Paswan and Kameshwar Paswan highlight the party’s effort to strengthen its base among SC voters. These potential candidates are seen as strong assets in ensuring the BJP’s influence among marginalized communities.
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Experience and Loyalty:
In constituencies like Ranchi, where experienced leaders like C.P. Singh are facing challenges, the party is likely to avoid risks. Despite Bhairav Singh’s growing popularity, C.P. Singh’s long political career and loyalty to the party make his ticket almost certain. The BJP is likely to prioritize stability and proven leadership in such critical seats.
Conclusion
As BJP prepares to release its first list of candidates for the Jharkhand Assembly elections, discussions surrounding four key constituencies—Ranchi, Dhanbad, Deoghar, and Jamua—are at the forefront. The party is carefully considering the balance between anti-incumbency, caste dynamics, and internal organizational challenges.
Kameshwar Paswan’s strong candidacy in Jamua and Vinita Paswan’s emergence in Deoghar reflect the party’s focus on caste-based electoral strategy, while C.P. Singh’s ticket in Ranchi seems secure despite challenges from Bhairav Singh.
In the coming days, the BJP’s official list will clarify its strategic decisions, revealing which candidates will represent the party in these critical constituencies.
