SWAMI DIVYA GYAN
Simdega, a key tribal-dominated constituency in Jharkhand, is poised for a complex electoral contest in 2024, reflecting new challenges and changing political dynamics. The primary contenders—Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Jharkhand Party (JP)—are preparing for a tight race. This comprehensive analysis delves into the electoral scenario, focusing on potential candidates, social equations, and voter behaviour in Simdega.
Geographic and Social Structure of Simdega
Simdega Assembly constituency comprises five key blocks: Palkot, Kersai, Kurdeg, Pakartanr, and Simdega. With a 62% Scheduled Tribe (ST) population, the constituency is largely dominated by tribal communities. Among them, the Khadia community, with around 30,000 voters, holds significant influence in the political calculus. The large Christian population, constituting more than 58 % of the electorate, plays a pivotal role in determining election outcomes. Non-tribal OBC voters also form a critical vote bank, though their dissatisfaction with the BJP could pose challenges.
Congress: Internal struggles and emerging faces
For the Congress, the 2024 elections are crucial as incumbent MLA Bhushan Bada faces strong internal opposition. Having won the last election by a slim margin of just 285 votes, Bada now contends with both organisational and public dissatisfaction with his work. Local sources highlight discontent at both the grassroots and party levels regarding his performance. His candidacy hinges heavily on support from the Christian community, particularly the Church, without which securing a ticket could prove difficult.
Key Congress candidates
David Tirkey: The district president of Congress in Simdega, Tirkey is seen as a strong contender for the ticket. However, despite backing from a senior Jharkhand Congress leader, his lack of full support from the Church weakens his bid.
Shanti Bala Kerketta: A retired army officer, Kerketta is now the district president of the Women’s Congress. She has significant reach within the party at the state and national levels, frequently visiting Ranchi and Delhi to bolster her candidacy.
Ajit Navrangi: An emerging candidate, Navrangi is a Christian social worker who played a key role in Bhushan Bada’s previous win. His growing influence in the Christian community, bolstered by his efforts to build a prominent church near Farsabeda, adds to his credibility.
BJP: Strong groundwork and sympathy factor
The BJP appears well-positioned for the Simdega elections. Shraddhanand Besra, who lost by only 285 votes in the previous election, is set to contest again, benefiting from the sympathy factor and his continued presence in the constituency. The BJP has three key contenders vying for the party’s ticket:
Vimla Pradhan: A former MLA, Pradhan is pushing for her son’s nomination. With strong support within the BJP, her administrative experience as a former minister makes her a formidable candidate. However, her ticket request for her son introduces new dynamics to the selection process.
Shraddhanand Besra: Despite his narrow defeat in the last election, Besra remains a popular figure due to his ongoing community involvement. His close connection with voters and involvement in local programs positions him as a leading candidate for the BJP ticket.
Laxman Baraik: Currently the BJP district president, Baraik is also in the race for a ticket. However, compared to Pradhan and Besra, he appears to have less grassroots enthusiasm.
Jharkhand Party (JP): The Rise of Irin Ekka
The Jharkhand Party, led by former minister Enos Ekka’s daughter, Irin Ekka, is gaining traction in Simdega. With strong backing from the Church, Ekka is positioning herself as a powerful candidate among Christian voters. Public support for her is growing, particularly in areas like Palkot, making her a disruptive force in this election. Her candidacy could split the votes of both the Congress and BJP, introducing new challenges for these parties.
Social equations and electoral calculus
Simdega’s voter demographics, particularly its large Christian and tribal populations, will play a decisive role in the 2024 election. The Christian community, which makes up over 61% of the electorate, will significantly influence the results. Additionally, tribal voters, especially the Khadia community, with 30,000 voters, will also be crucial. Conversion to Christianity in this area is limited, meaning the religious identity of voters may not dramatically shift.
For the BJP, discontent within the OBC community remains a challenge, especially following the collective resignations in the neighbouring Gumla district. The BJP must address these concerns if it hopes to secure broader support in Simdega.
Conclusion: A likely triangular contest
The 2024 Simdega Assembly election is expected to feature a triangular contest between the Congress, the BJP, and the Jharkhand Party. If Congress nominates Bhushan Bada and the BJP fields Shraddhanand Besra, the BJP might hold an edge. However, should Congress opt for a new candidate and BJP selects Vimla Pradhan, the race could become a close and intriguing contest.
Ultimately, the election will hinge on the support of the Christian and tribal communities. Irin Ekka’s candidacy, backed by the Church, could transform this into a three-way fight, disrupting traditional voting patterns. The outcome will depend heavily on how effectively the candidates balance religious and social dynamics.
The 2024 Simdega election demonstrates that the key to victory lies not just in political strategy but in navigating the intricate social and religious equations at play in this Christian-majority and tribal-dominated constituency.
