PINAKI MAJUMDAR
Jamshedpur, June 1: India’s southwest monsoon has hit an unexpected pause, with its onset over Kerala likely to be delayed by nearly a week due to a cyclonic circulation developing over the Bay of Bengal.
The monsoon was initially forecast to arrive in Kerala by May 26, raising hopes of an early start to the rainy season. However, evolving weather conditions over the Bay have disrupted the large-scale wind patterns that drive the monsoon, prompting meteorologists to revise their forecast.
Monsoon Onset Likely Between June 2 and June 4
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is now expected to make its onset over Kerala between June 2 and June 4.
Weather experts said the cyclonic circulation has altered the flow of moisture-laden winds, slowing the monsoon’s northward advance after an encouraging early build-up.
Cyclonic Influence Behind Delay
Meteorologists noted that the developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal has temporarily affected the atmospheric conditions required for the monsoon’s steady progression.
Although the delay is not considered significant from a climatological perspective, it has attracted attention because forecasts had earlier indicated the possibility of an early onset.
IMD Optimistic About Further Advance
The IMD remains optimistic that favourable conditions will return once the cyclonic influence weakens, enabling the monsoon to advance across Kerala and gradually spread to other parts of the country.
The southwest monsoon is vital for India’s agriculture, water resources and economy, accounting for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall.
Farmers, agricultural planners and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation as the country awaits the arrival of the monsoon rains.