SWAMI DIVYA GYAN
Ranchi, Oct 9: As Jharkhand approaches its Assembly elections in November and December 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) recent electoral success in Haryana holds significant implications for its strategy in Jharkhand. The political landscapes of these two states are distinct, but there are valuable lessons for BJP to draw from its Haryana win, which could influence the outcome in Jharkhand.
While the INDI Alliance led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren currently holds power in Jharkhand, BJP is seeking to regain ground, buoyed by the momentum from its victory in Haryana. Here, we explore how Haryana’s results will impact BJP’s approach to the Jharkhand elections and shape the overall political landscape.
The psychological boost from Haryana victory
BJP’s success in Haryana, where it defied anti-incumbency and consolidated non-Jat voters, will provide the party with a psychological boost as it heads into Jharkhand’s elections. While the voter demographics differ—Kurmi, OBC, upper-caste, and tribal communities dominate Jharkhand’s political sphere—the momentum from Haryana instills confidence in BJP’s leadership and grassroots workers. This victory showcases the party’s resilience and ability to manage caste and regional dynamics effectively, a strategy it will likely replicate in Jharkhand.
The Haryana win also sends a clear message to voters in Jharkhand that BJP is a formidable force capable of overcoming political odds. This psychological edge will fuel BJP’s campaign, enhancing its ability to galvanize supporters, workers, and local leaders across Jharkhand.
Alliance dynamics: Building a stronger coalition
Unlike in Haryana, where BJP contested the elections without any alliances, the party in Jharkhand has allied with AJSU (All Jharkhand Students Union) and JDU (Janata Dal United). This alliance will be critical in consolidating votes among Kurmi, OBC, upper-caste, and tribal communities. Tribal voters, in particular, play a central role in Jharkhand’s political equation, comprising a large portion of the electorate and controlling 28 reserved seats in the Assembly. Building a strong alliance that includes prominent tribal leaders will be essential for BJP to challenge the INDI Alliance’s dominance.
BJP’s leadership in Jharkhand has already incorporated influential tribal figures like Champai Soren and Lobin Hembrom into its fold, positioning itself as an inclusive party that can represent both tribal and non-tribal communities. The party’s ability to bring these leaders on board and focus on development in tribal areas gives it a stronger coalition to contest the 28 reserved tribal seats, where the JMM has traditionally been dominant. By partnering with regional players and integrating tribal leaders, BJP aims to expand its voter base, much like it consolidated non-Jat votes in Haryana.
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Targeting Tribal voters: Lessons from Haryana’s caste strategy
In Haryana, BJP’s ability to consolidate non-Jat votes was instrumental in securing its victory. In Jharkhand, the focus will shift to tribal voters, who hold immense influence, especially in the 28 reserved tribal constituencies. BJP’s efforts to include tribal leaders like Champai Soren and Lobin Hembrom show a clear intent to challenge JMM’s traditional dominance in these areas.
The lesson from Haryana is that building a broad coalition of marginalized and backward communities can yield significant electoral gains. In Jharkhand, BJP will apply a similar approach, targeting tribal voters with development-oriented promises and emphasizing its inclusive leadership. The party’s strategy will focus on convincing tribal communities that they can benefit from BJP’s economic development agenda, while simultaneously addressing local issues like land rights and tribal welfare.
Moreover, Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra, a key arm of the RSS that works exclusively for tribal welfare, will be a significant factor in BJP’s outreach. This organization has deep roots in tribal communities and has been involved in various education, health, and development projects that resonate well with tribal voters. The work done by Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra can help BJP build credibility among tribals, positioning the party as a genuine ally of the community.
The role of Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP)
Another important player in BJP’s electoral machinery is the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP), the student wing of RSS. In Jharkhand, the ABVP has a strong presence in universities and educational institutions and will play a key role in mobilizing young voters. The success of BJP in Haryana was partly attributed to its ability to attract young, educated voters through job promises and education-related schemes. In Jharkhand, the ABVP will amplify this strategy by engaging with students and youth to bring them into BJP’s fold, ensuring the party secures the support of a critical voting demographic.
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Development promises vs. Immediate relief schemes
The Haryana election showcased BJP’s ability to position itself as the party of long-term economic stability and infrastructure development, with promises like the ‘Ghar Saakar Yojana’ and ‘Yuva Saathi Bhatta’. In Jharkhand, the BJP has already rolled out its ‘Five Pledges’ (Panch Pran), focusing on housing, employment, and financial aid to attract a diverse voter base.
In contrast, Hemant Soren’s government has relied on immediate relief schemes such as ‘Maiya Samman Yojana’, and other popular schemes focuses on loan waivers and direct financial assistance to rural and poor voters. These schemes have garnered substantial support, particularly among rural communities, offering quick and tangible benefits. However, BJP’s focus in Jharkhand will be on emphasizing the long-term economic stability and development potential of its pledges, presenting itself as the party that can provide sustainable solutions beyond short-term relief.
BJP will argue that while Soren’s relief schemes offer temporary comfort, its development-oriented promises will bring long-lasting improvements to infrastructure, housing, and employment opportunities. This contrast in vision, as seen in Haryana, will be key to BJP’s messaging in Jharkhand, particularly in appealing to urban, middle-class, and youth voters who are seeking more than just short-term financial aid.
Grassroot mobilization and local leadership
In Haryana, BJP successfully mobilized voters at the grassroots level through RSS-affiliated organizations and local leaders, who conducted small-scale meetings and fostered personal connections with voters. This strategy was instrumental in reaching rural voters and building trust within communities that traditional campaigns often miss.
BJP is likely to replicate this grassroots mobilization strategy in Jharkhand, particularly in the state’s tribal and rural constituencies. By leveraging the RSS network, including the Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra, and relying on local leadership like Champai Soren, BJP can connect with voters on a personal level, address their concerns directly, and build a strong base of support. The success of this strategy in Haryana offers a blueprint for how BJP can engage with tribal voters, who have historically backed the INDI Alliance.
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Impact on Jharkhand’s political equation
The Haryana victory also shifts the political equation in Jharkhand by altering the perception of BJP’s capabilities. After losing ground in previous state elections, BJP’s resurgence in Haryana signals that the party is far from losing momentum. The ability to overcome anti-incumbency in Haryana will likely be used to counter the INDI Alliance’s narrative in Jharkhand, positioning BJP as a party that can govern effectively even in challenging political environments.
Additionally, the BJP’s victory could create fissures within the INDI Alliance as parties and leaders reconsider their electoral strategies in light of BJP’s success. The momentum from Haryana could further strengthen BJP’s negotiating power with regional allies like AJSU and JDU, reinforcing its coalition in Jharkhand.
Conclusion: Haryana’s ripple effect on Jharkhand
The BJP’s victory in Haryana will have a direct impact on Jharkhand’s Assembly elections in 2024. The success provides the party with not only a psychological boost but also strategic insights into grassroots mobilization, coalition-building, and voter outreach that can be adapted to Jharkhand’s unique political environment. The key takeaway from Haryana is that a well-organized, inclusive strategy focused on long-term development can effectively challenge the ruling government’s immediate relief-based policies.
As the BJP prepares for Jharkhand’s elections, the lessons from Haryana will serve as a guiding force, allowing the party to refine its approach and build a robust coalition capable of challenging the INDI Alliance. With a renewed focus on tribal inclusion, economic development, strong alliances, and the RSS’s key institutions like Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra and ABVP, BJP is poised to be a formidable contender in Jharkhand’s upcoming electoral battle.
