SUMAN K SHRIVASTAVA
Ranchi, June 6: The 2024 Lok Sabha result could well be a wake-call for the BJP, which will face the Assembly elections merely after five months.
The BJP’s vote share has been reduced to 44.60 per cent from 51.6 per cent in the 2019 parliamentary elections. This dip of 7 per cent has led the BJP to lose three more seats this time. It could win only eight out of the 14 seats this time.
The AJSU party, BJP’s partner in the NDA, has also suffered a loss in the vote share. The party, which fought one seat, Giridih and won it with a margin of over 80,000 votes has bagged only 2.62 per cent of votes compared to 4.4 percent in 2019.
The shrinking political space for the AJSU party could well be attributed to the phenomenal rise of Jharkhandi Bhasha Sangharsh Samiti’s (JBKSS) Jairam Mahto who got over 3.47 lakh votes in Giridih. The main support base for 29-year-old Jairam comes from the Kurmi community, which has also supported the AJSU party all these years. The JBKSS candidates have bagged a significant number of votes in other constituencies too.
Increase in JMM-Congress vote share
On the other hand, the JMM vote share has increased to 14.60 per cent from 11.7 per cent in 2019 while the Congress got 19.19 per cent of total votes against 15.8 per cent in the last parliamentary elections. Both the parties along with the RJD and the CPI (ML) had stitched a conflict-free alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
BJP loses all 5 tribal seats
But then, the BJP might have succeeded in convincing its voters that the interest of the country is paramount, and it is safe only in the hands of Narendra Modi, to retain the nine seats-eight general and one reserved for SC, but it failed to convince the tribal and, to a great extent, the Kurmi voters, whose discontent led the saffron party to bite the dust in all five seats reserved for tribals, Khunti, Lohardaga, Dumka, Rajmahal and Singhbhum.
BJP stalwart Arjun Munda lost in Khunti, while Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita Soren, whom the BJP roped in the eleventh hour, could not retain Dumka.
The Congress contested seven seats, the JMM five, and the RJD and the CPI (ML) one seat each. The JMM has bagged 3 and the Congress 2 seats.
Assembly wise performance
Now, this dip in the vote share has been reflected in the performance in assembly constituencies too.
While the BJP led in 63 out of 81 assembly constituencies in 2019, it has led in 47 constituencies only. Together with the AJSU party, it has led in 50 assembly seats. The BJP has lagged behind the JMM-Congress in 23 assembly seats out of 28 seats reserved for tribals. The saffron party, has, however, retained Palamu, a seat reserved for scheduled castes. VD Ram won the seat with a huge margin of 2,88,807 votes. Incidentally, Ram, a former DGP, was said to be not a favourite in the party’s so-called internal survey.
The winning margin of the BJP candidates too has been drastically reduced in many constituencies.
On the other hand, the Congress has a lead in 15 assembly seats and the JMM in 14. The JBKSS has a lead in two assembly seats-Gomia and Dumri.
Where does this report card take the party?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was ahead in 63 seats and yet could win only 25 seats in the Assembly elections held five months later. On the other hand, the JMM bagged 29, the Congress 17, RJD 1, and, CPI (ML) 1.
Incidentally, the BJP lost over 17 per cent of the vote in the Assembly election held just six months after the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 which led to the ouster of the Raghubar Das government.
So, this voting pattern should be a worrying factor for the BJP in the Assembly elections when the local factors will be in full play and national leaders have a limited role in influencing the voting pattern.
Marandi puts up a brave face
BJP state president Babulal Marandi, however, said the political scenario has changed this time. “The BJP was in power and naturally faced anti-incumbency in 2019. This time around, the JMM-Congress is in power and this anti-incumbency factor will haunt the ruling combine, whose only agenda is to loot the state’s resources with former Chief Minister Hemant Soren in jail on corruption charges,” he maintained.
