SWAMI DIVYAGYAN
Dhanwar, Nov. 7: The Dhanwar Assembly seat has become a central focus in the 2024 Jharkhand elections, highlighted by the candidacy of BJP state president and chief ministerial hopeful Babulal Marandi. Marandi’s entry has elevated Dhanwar to VIP status, as he faces two former MLAs of Dhanwar—CPI (ML)’s Rajkumar Yadav and JMM’s Nizamuddin Ansari—in an intense triangular contest.
Each candidate’s history with Dhanwar and the influential voter bases of the Bhumihar, Yadav, Kushwaha, and Muslim communities make this seat critical in shaping Jharkhand’s political future.
Babulal Marandi tackles a three-way battle
Babulal Marandi, a seasoned strategist and former chief minister, has represented Dhanwar before and now returns to the seat as BJP’s face for chief minister, bringing statewide attention to this contest.
This election, however, presents specific challenges for Marandi as he navigates Dhanwar’s complex voter dynamics.
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Marandi’s campaign strategy includes securing the critical Bhumihar votes, where he is expected to rely on the BJP’s state working president, Ravindra Rai, a prominent Bhumihar leader from the area. Rai’s involvement could consolidate the Bhumihar community’s support. To counter the influence of Pranav Verma—a former BJP vice-president who recently joined the JMM and holds sway over the Kushwaha community—Marandi has enlisted Jayprakash Verma, an influential Kushwaha leader and former JMM MLA who recently rejoined the BJP. Verma’s backing could effectively balance the Kushwaha vote in Marandi’s favour.
To address the Yadav community’s support, Marandi faces the stronghold of Rajkumar Yadav, a prominent figure within the community. To attract Yadav voters, Marandi is expected to engage Union Minister Annapurna Devi, MP for the Koderma constituency that includes Dhanwar. Devi’s presence and influence within the Yadav community may draw critical support to the BJP, enhancing Marandi’s strategic position in this high-stakes election.
Marandi’s experience as a former MLA and his background in the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) give him a unique edge, allowing him to appeal to a wide range of voters. His strategy is not just to retain the BJP’s traditional voter base but to expand it, ultimately strengthening BJP’s vote share in Dhanwar and reinforcing his position as the leading candidate in this triangular race.
Rajkumar Yadav: Securing the Yadav Vote and Gaining Muslim Support
Rajkumar Yadav, CPI (ML)’s candidate and a former MLA of Dhanwar, commands substantial influence within the Yadav community. His campaign has focused on strengthening this base and appealing to Muslim voters, a critical factor that could enhance his competitive edge in the triangular contest. Yadav’s strategy aims to establish himself as the best alternative for Muslim voters, positioning him over JMM’s Nizamuddin Ansari.
If Yadav successfully aligns his message with community-driven policies that resonate with Yadav and Muslim voters, he could gain a decisive advantage. His campaign focuses on highlighting the CPI (ML)’s commitment to social equity and his track record as a community representative, aiming to bridge local issues with broader social concerns to appeal to both Yadav and Muslim communities.
Nizamuddin Ansari: Building JMM’s Base Among Muslim and Kushwaha Voters
Nizamuddin Ansari, JMM’s candidate and former Dhanwar MLA, is a strong contender with notable support among Muslim voters. Ansari’s position has been further bolstered by Pranav Verma’s recent shift from BJP to JMM, which could help JMM consolidate the Kushwaha vote. The Verma family’s longstanding influence within Koderma could direct Kushwahas’ support toward Ansari, enhancing his competitiveness in the race.
By aligning with influential community figures, the JMM has gained a significant strategic advantage, positioning Ansari as a credible and inclusive option for Dhanwar’s diverse electorate. His campaign emphasizes the JMM’s inclusive approach, aligning with the community-centred ideals that resonate within Dhanwar’s Muslim and Kushwaha communities.
Religious Polarization and Potential Outcomes
Religious polarization may also play a role in Dhanwar’s race. Should polarization occur, it could benefit either Marandi or Ansari, as each has strong community support within Hindu and Muslim bases, respectively. Marandi may gain traction among Hindu voters, while Ansari’s appeal to the Muslim electorate could intensify. However, if religious polarization does not take place, Rajkumar Yadav could benefit from this divide by consolidating support from both the Yadav and Muslim communities, strengthening his competitive position in this triangular contest.
With each candidate bringing significant experience and influence, the Dhanwar election stands as a defining moment for Jharkhand politics. The outcome will not only shape Dhanwar’s representation but may also set the tone for Jharkhand’s broader political landscape, with Babulal Marandi, Rajkumar Yadav, and Nizamuddin Ansari each vying for dominance in a high-stakes race.
