PINAKI MAJUMDAR
Jamshedpur, May 28: The onset of the Southwest Monsoon over the Kerala coast has been slightly delayed this year, though favourable atmospheric conditions are now rapidly developing for its arrival, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The monsoon, considered the lifeline of India’s agriculture and rural economy, was initially expected to reach Kerala around May 26.
However, meteorologists said the advance slowed marginally over the southern Arabian Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal due to changing oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
Despite the delay, weather experts said the monsoon is now close to entering Kerala, with cloud activity and widespread rainfall increasing across southern India.
Heavy rainfall signals strengthening monsoon currents
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is already being reported in parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Northeast India, indicating strengthening monsoon currents over the region.
The IMD has forecast a gradual expansion of monsoon activity into adjoining areas over the next few days.
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Heatwave relief likely from May 29
Meanwhile, large parts of Northwest, Central and East India are expected to get relief from the ongoing heatwave conditions from May 29 onwards.
Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely across several states as moisture-laden winds advance further inland.
Officials at IMD’s Alipore Regional Centre said the changing weather system is expected to bring down temperatures and trigger pre-monsoon activity over eastern and central India.
IMD projects below-normal monsoon rainfall
In its seasonal outlook, the IMD has projected the country’s overall monsoon rainfall to remain “below normal” this year at nearly 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Experts said the monsoon this season is being influenced by neutral ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean, though the possibility of El Niño developing during the core monsoon months remains high.
Jharkhand likely to remain hot and humid
For Jharkhand, including Jamshedpur, weather conditions are expected to remain hot and humid for a few more days before the monsoon advances further inland.
Meteorologists said intermittent thunderstorms and gusty winds would continue to provide temporary relief ahead of the full-fledged monsoon arrival in eastern India.
The IMD is closely monitoring the monsoon’s progress through satellite imagery, ocean observations and atmospheric circulation patterns. Officials said the next few days will be crucial for the official declaration of monsoon onset over Kerala.