THE JHARKHAND STORY DESK
Kolkata, April 30: With record voter turnout in the West Bengal Assembly elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar—an informal betting market—has revised its projections after Phase 2, giving the BJP an edge in a close contest against the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
Earlier estimates had placed the TMC comfortably ahead, but updated figures now suggest the BJP could win 150–152 seats, crossing the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly. The TMC is projected at 137–140 seats. Before Phase 2, the market had estimated 158–161 seats for TMC and 127–130 for BJP.
High turnout reshapes projections
The shift in estimates comes amid record voter participation, with turnout reaching nearly 92–93 per cent—one of the highest in West Bengal’s electoral history. Market watchers say the surge in voting has influenced ground perceptions and betting trends.
In Bhabanipur, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee appears to be in a weaker position in betting terms. Her “price” has reportedly increased from 20–25 paise to 50 paise. In this system, a higher price signals weaker chances.
Exit polls show mixed but similar trend
Several exit polls also point to a strong BJP performance. Most place the party near or above the majority mark, with estimates ranging from 146–161 seats. TMC projections vary between 125–140 seats, though some outliers suggest a comeback. Overall, poll trends broadly align with Satta Bazar estimates.
What is Phalodi Satta Bazar?
Phalodi Satta Bazar is an unofficial betting market in Rajasthan, often seen as a gauge of political sentiment. Its rates change based on perceived developments, where higher odds indicate weaker prospects. However, its predictions are speculative, unverified, and not based on scientific methods.
With high turnout, shifting betting trends, and mixed exit polls, West Bengal appears headed for a closely fought electoral outcome.
Other states
In Assam, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 98–100 seats, while Congress may get 24–26. In Tamil Nadu, trends suggest around 100 seats for the NDA and 140 for the DMK-led alliance. In Kerala, the UDF is seen ahead with around 80 seats, compared to 60 for the LDF, though figures may change.